One of the factors that constitute the (high) value of search engines is the data gathering process behind the search. With this they are able to produce information and knowledge. This information reveals human (search) behavior, but most of all it reveals search trends. The most commonly known analysis methods in financial (investment) analysis are technical and fundamental analysis. The fundamental analyst observes the stock values on bases of company analysis. The technical analyst (TA) is less involved with the collateral value but merely interested in the trends of the stock-price. The interesting aspect of TA is that it provides you a signaling system. Without knowing the cause you are signaled which stocks (bonds, currencies, etc) move in what direction. Take care however with TA, because it is said that TA is like looking outside the rear-window of a van and signaling the driver which way to go to. If you observe the search market and especially the demand for search you can in the same way signal search trends. To give an example with data from Overture on management: - June 2004 -- about 2,000,000 searches of which 150 different types (with investment management being the highest with about 180,000 searches)
- December 2005 about 2,200,000 searches of which 100 different types (with property management being the highest with more than 200,000 searches)
Doing such an analysis is nearly impossible without the services from the mayor search engines. First you need to know the overall search growth on all the entries in order to get the main index (to serve as a benchmark). And also two measures are never sufficient to calculate a trend. Yet this analysis, how simple or profound as you might want to pursue it, shows interesting information; Although searches on management show a stable horizontal trend (in absolute figures, perhaps relatively spoken the trend could be descending), the changes between different types of management are significant. To give some examples: - Change management from about 14,000 in June 2004 (21,000 May 2005) to about 11,000 (December 2005)
- Performance management from about 11,000 (16,000 in May 2005) to about 70,000 (December 2005)
- Property management from 130,000 to about 240,000 (December 2005)
A next step would be to add the fundamental part to the analysis. What is the drive behind these changes? This simple demonstration is focused on management, but you could apply this to any area. Ask you search engine for data or start with a simple analysis yourself. For SEO the trend analysis could help you in anticipating changes. Just take care to turn left at the right moment. 2006 Hans Bool |
