Technical Analysis is widely used in the area of investment. It provides a mechanism in which you - as an investor - are able to (self) analyse the price development of a certain investment object, without having to bother about fundamental knowledge. The technical analyst is not influenced by fundamental discussions, but keeps a tight focus on a certain movement, tendency or ... a trend. A trend is very important, because it is real. A trend is visible and you cannot deny it. Take for instance the growth of a population and the growth of the life expectation of human beings. But also the trend related to the previous one in which relatively less people will participate in the National Production, which increases the cost of distributing overall income (pensions). All trends you cannot deny. The technique of technical analysis - which is more that just signalling a trend -- could also be used in a completely different environment. In politics for example, where you are to analyse the (historical) development of the European Nations. According to a study that was published in the Spanish tabloid 20 minutes, the European map gained 22 countries over the last hundred years. (www.20minutos.es /noticia/127579/0/mapa/europeo/siglo/). In 1906 there were 22 European Nations, in 1956 this number increase to 34 and the number has already risen to 46 (or 47 if Turkey is included). Currently Montenegro is preparing for its independence, we do not know whether they will succeed in the attempt, but the direction is clear. In Spain itself, the independence discussions are boiling too. And with a technical analysis view on the whole issue, you might expect that Spain will no longer exist as one country. Technical speaking, there is a tendency that states over a longer period get independent. Even if it is a speculation, if you would bet with a technical viewpoint you should bet on a Spain that will get divided. Results from the past however, do not predict future developments. We shouldnt merely extrapolate the past. And, We also shouldnt forget that there is another trend... 2006 Hans Bool |
